In this paper, nonlinear adjustments and price transmission mechanism between the two levels of wholesale and retail for the egg market has been examined under the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) framework using Hansen and Seo (2002)’s two-regimes). The unit root test showed that both wholesale and retail egg price series were integrated of order one. The Johansen co-integration test indicated that in the long term, the prices at both ends of marketing chain were quite integrated, i.e. any change in the price of one level is fully transmitted to the other level. In the next step, the SupLM test confirmed threshold adjustment between wholesale and retail series towards the long-run equilibrium. The estimated TVECM (2) showed that the error correction coefficients of retail price equation were significant in both regimes and its value in the first regime was larger than the second regime, while they were insignificant for the wholesale price equation. This indicates that when deviations in the long-run equilibrium occur, wholesalers are reluctant to react, but retailers react to both positive and negative shocks. The findings revealed that the reaction rate is much higher for the positive shocks then the negative ones. The short-run dynamics are almost the same in both regimes; however the speed of adjustment in the second regime is higher than the first regime.

Background & objectives: Despite the importance and impact of health and education on economic growth in countries, the causal relationship between education and health is important to policymaking. This study aimed to investigate the causality relationship between education and health in the short and long runs using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in Iran. Method: This was an analytical and applied study, conducted at the national level using Vector Error Correction Model for Iran. The data type was annual time series which extracted from the World Bank website between the years of 2017-1996. The VECM and the required tests were estimated in Eviews 10 software. Results: the result showed that there was a cointegration vector for the health function of Iran in these years, i. e., current health was not only a function of independent variables of the model but also a function of health and education variables in previous periods. Also, in the short and long run, the years of schooling had the causal effect on life expectancy and, life expectancy had a causal effect on years of schooling in Iran. GDP and health expenditures per capita had a positive effect and the carbon dioxide production per capita had a negative impact on life expectancy. Conclusion: According to the results, there was a two-way causality relationship between education and health in the short and long runs in Iran, so that in the short and long runs, increased education can lead to improved health status, and improved health status can lead to increased education. Therefore, the policies of the education and health sectors are complementary.

In this paper asymmetric price transmission mechanism and nonlinear adjustment between producer and retail prices of milk were examined in Zanjan Province of Iran. For this purpose, a Two-Regime Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) and a Sup-LM Test developed by Hansen and Seo (2002) were employed for checking presence of a threshold effect. Application of unit root tests indicated that both wholesale and retail prices are I (1), and Johansen test verified cointegration of the series in the long-run. Results of the Sup-LM test confirmed threshold adjustment of product price towards the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, results obtained from TVECM revealed that the coefficient of ECT is significant only in the first regime of retailing equation implying that retailers significantly respond to the decreasing deviations from the long-run equilibrium. While adjustment coefficient is not significant for wholesale equation in both regimes to imply that there is not significant inclination to react to deviations from the long-run equilibrium among the wholesalers despite the retailers.

Stagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correction Method (ECM) and the data of the years 1973-2011. Then, by using Threshold Autoregressive Error Correction Method (TAR-ECM), the researchers try to clear that if the growth of the elements identified will equally affect the stagflation or after a threshold level, the effect can be different. According to the results of linear relationship, indices of payment balances, budget deficit, oil revenues and liquidity are statistically significant and considered as the cause of stagflation in Iran. Also, the results of all nonlinear models estimated in this paper represent when the growth of stagflation causes passed the threshold point, their effect on stagflation will be different.

The underground economy is a global phenomenon that exists in all countries of the world and it has attracted the attention of many researchers and government organizations in different countries. Having information of the size of the underground economy is very important from the aspect of tax evasion, the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy, economic growth and income distribution. Evidence indicates the increased share of underground economy in most countries of the world. In broad concept, the underground economy is those activities which are not included in the national accounts. Removing some of the economic activities from the national accounts which are used as a measure of a country's output of goods and services during an accounting period creates numerous problems. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the underground economy in the period 1976 to 2010 by the method of Tanzi and identify factors influencing it by the method of Johansen-Juselius and (VECM). The results show that the underground economy allocated a high volume of the country's economy to itself and shows a growing trend in the time period of study. In addition, both size of government and revenue have a significant and positive relationship with the size of the underground economy.

Introduction: Financing is strongly believed to be the main function of any health system and insurance organizations play a critical role in the health financing system of all countries. Accordingly, in order to enable the insurance companies to take steps towards meeting the assigned goals, creation of a balance in the budget and also financial management of their resources and expenses are needed. Therefore, the current research is conducted with the purpose of analyzing the factors affecting the budget balance of health insurance organizations. Methods: This research which is considered an experimental study has used the monthly data of premium, coinsurance, treatment, and overhead costs, and the number of services purchased by the Iran Health Insurance Organization during 2008-2019, and the vector error correction model (VECM) to analyze short and long-run relationships, estimate parameters and predict relationships. In addition, the approach of the present research in the selection of variables is based on the mediating role of this organization in the expenditure reimbursement, behavior management, and the purchasing of healthcare services. Results: The results indicated that in the long term, the insured's coinsurance and the premium paid to the Iranian Health Insurance Organization have a negative effect on the budget deficit, respectively-0. 27 and-0. 9. In contrast, the budget deficit is positively impacted by treatment and overhead costs with a coefficient of 2. 41 and 0. 67 and the number of services purchased by Iran Health Insurance Organization with a coefficient of 139576. Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, the health insurance organization can use strategies such as increasing premiums and coinsurances, reducing treatment and overhead costs, and also the number of purchased services, to control and minimize its budget deficit.